Average Sunday Attendance (ASA) Freak Out
Remember ASA (Average Sunday Attendance)? If you are the lucky one in your church who completes forms to send to your denomination, you recognize ASA. During the Modern Era (up to around the year 2000), this metric was a fairly reliable measure for how many people participate in one’s church. During the Postmodern Era (2000+), when attendance patterns shifted, this number became less reliable for assessing the number of church participants (since people attend worship less often).
But now….O, but now….the unreliability of ASA has skyrocketed. What in the world do the ASA numbers tell us? Do we count the people online and in-person or just one or the other? What does this tell us about the number of people involved in our church, especially during this Autumn of 2021?
Your church’s smaller ASA means your church is like most others in North America
No, contrary to the buzz floating around your church and in the lay leadership team, your church is not the only church in the land whose ASA is smaller. No, your church’s smaller ASA doesn’t mean your church is uniquely flawed, headed for immanent and immediate disaster. Your church is simply experiencing what the vast majority of churches are in North America. So, take a deep breath and don’t freak out.
Your church’s current ASA is not an accurate measure of the number of participants in your church
A few weeks ago, I gathered online with leaders from churches who are engaged in our ReShape Transforming Church Initiative. A major activity of ReShape is an 8-session curriculum which small groups engage for Christian formation and discernment regarding their church. As these leaders described their progress, church after church shared that the number of people participating in their Small Groups exceeds their current ASA. I had to ask again to make sure I was hearing correctly. One church’s ASA is about 120, while they have 151 people in their small groups. More people are participating in these churches than their ASA might indicate. So, take a deep breath and don’t freak out.
Your church’s smaller ASA does indicate some participants are not returning
There are church prognosticators who claim to know what percentage of people are not returning to churches after the pandemic. My crystal ball is broken, so I don’t have a percentage to offer. At the same time, the pandemic was the straw that broke the church camel’s back for some, turning them into Dones. A few others are going to other churches because of the way their church handled the pandemic. Though we hate to lose anyone from our churches for any reason, fallout during major times of crisis is typical and normal. We don’t like it, yet it happens. So, take a deep breath and don’t freak out.
Your church’s smaller ASA doesn’t indicate your pastor and/or church staff need to go
Here we are nearing pastor and staff evaluation season (for those churches who value evaluations). Given America’s infatuation with leadership along with the deep disappointment by many in America’s politicians, don’t be surprised when some in churches interpret your lower ASA as a clear sign your pastor and church staff are to blame. Yes, they are part of the mix, just like everyone else. Yet if the previous statements in this article hold true, your pastor’s performance is a minor influence on your ASA (except in extreme cases, which most are not). So, take a deep breath and don’t freak out.
The bottom line is that no one knows exactly what your church’s current ASA means beyond the obvious – the number of people participating in worship. I suspect ASA will never gain the level of significance it enjoyed in the past, given the changing ways we are evaluating church effectiveness (other articles on our blog and more coming). So, before we take drastic measures or become reactionary to our church’s smaller ASA, take a deep breath and don’t freak out.